This dataset presents the scenarios of gas consumption in France
by 2030. These data come from the document « 2020 gas perspectives »,
which is a collaboration between GRDF, GRTgaz, Teréga and SPEGNN (in accordance
with the recommendations of Article L.141-10 of the Energy Code).
The modelling approach used for the construction of the
scenarios is that of bottom-up modelling of each sector of consumption and of
renewable gas production. It is based on the use and exploitation of data from
numerous studies (INSEE, SDES, CEREN, ADEME, RTE, AFG, DGEC, ENTSOG, etc.).
For the first time, it presents 3 trajectories of evolution
of gas consumption, all compatible with France’s carbon neutrality goal in 2050
:
Low Gas NATIONAL Scenario
This scenario is consistent and compatible with the AMS (Avec
Mesures Supplémentaires – With Additional Measures) scenario of the SNBC (Stratégie
Nationale Bas-Carbone – National Strategy Low Carbon) published in April 2020.
It is based on a significant electrification of uses, in particular in the
sectors of mobility, industry and single-family houses, and an important
development of urban heat networks to supply collective housing and tertiary
buildings.
High NATIONAL gas scenario
This scenario is consistent with the "high gas"
variant of the SNBC AMS scenario. The latter reflects the great uncertainty
that exists regarding the evolution of the place of gas in buildings and shows
that other paths towards carbon neutrality in 2050 are possible in France,
using a larger share of renewable gas to decarbonize the building industry.
TERRITORIES Scenario
This scenario is constructed from the concatenation of
regional ambitions and dynamics. It is based on the harmonization of published
SRADDET texts. Most of these scenarios rely on energy complementarity.
Gas consumption data are presented by sector: residential,
tertiary, industry (excluding electricity generation and cogeneration),
centralized electricity generation and cogeneration (called "PEC + cogé")
and gas mobility (Natural Gas Vehicle).
